Specific content
Trading risk refers to the exchange rate of the contract when the exchange rate is signed by the exchange rate and the exchange rate when the exchange rate is signed when the exchange rate is signed by the exchange rate and the transaction occurred during the settlement. risks of. These risks include:
1, with the import and export of goods or labor services for payment conditions, after delivery and labor costs, the payment rate is not yet paid before the goods shipment and labor costs The risk of changing.
2, international credit activities priced with foreign currency, the exchange rate risks existing before the debt debt is not cleared. For example, a project is borrowed is the yen, and it should also be the yen. The US dollar is received after the project is effective. If the US dollar has fallen sharply to the yen, the project will spend many dollars than the original plan, in order to return the yen, resulting in a loss.
3, the exchange rate risk in the foreign counterprises. Borrowing a foreign currency and needs to be replaced with another foreign currency, the fundraising will bear the risk of borrowing currency and using currency exchange rate changes.
4, the forward foreign exchange contract to be performed, the risk of the conventional exchange rate and the expiration of the exchange rate changes.
Formation Cause
Transaction risk is the risk of unsatisfied creditor debts after exchange rate changes, and the risk of foreign exchange is clear. These creditor debts have occurred before the exchange rate changes, but they will clear after the exchange rate changes. The exchange rate system system is the direct cause of the risk of foreign exchange transactions. The fixed exchange rate system will shield the risk, and the floating exchange rate system has increased the uncertainty of future currency trends and expanded the risk exposure.
Foreign exchange risk generally includes two factors: currency and time.
If there are no two different monetary exchange or conversion, there is no foreign exchange risk caused by exchange rate fluctuations. At the same time, the change in exchange rate and interest rate is always corresponding to the time period, and there is no time factor, there is no foreign exchange risk. The greater the time span of economic subject payment and the last clear day, the larger the extension of exchange rate fluctuations, the greater the calculation risk between monetary. The exchange between foreign currency and the local currency has become a prerequisite for foreign exchange transactions, and time factors are catalysts generated by foreign exchange transactions.
Goal and Principle
Goal
In most cases, it is impossible to prevent all transaction risks, and the prevention of certain risks Pay the price. Therefore, before preventing risks,
transaction risk
must determine the risk management target according to its own actual situation, and then take specific risk control measures. In general, there are two main goals to prevent foreign exchange trading risks: First, the short-term revenue is maximized; the other is the minimization of foreign exchange losses.
principle
1, fully emphasis on principles. Foreign economic subjects should pay highly attached great importance to their economic activities, and stand in the overall height, comprehensively use multiple analytical methods, and fully systematically examine the probability of the existence and probability of various risk events, and the severity of loss. And other issues caused by risk factors and risks in order to provide comparison, accurate decision information.
2, the management diversification principle. The economic main business is not the same, and the management style is different, so each economic entity should look for foreign exchange risk tactics and specific management methods that are best suited for their own risk conditions and management. In fact, there is no foreign exchange risk management method to completely eliminate foreign exchange risks. Therefore, when choosing a risk management approach, it is necessary to consider a variety of factors such as enterprise development strategy, relevant foreign exchange management policies, risk positions, should not use only Risk management method.
3, the maximum principle of revenue is maximized. Under the premise of ensuring risk management goals, the maximum income of maximum cost is pursued, which is the starting point and foothold of risk management. Therefore, the economic subject must be based on the actual situation and its own financial tolerance, the best choice is the best, the most expensive method.
Control Policy
internal management method
1, enhance account management, actively adjust asset liabilities. The balance represented by foreign currency is easily affected by exchange rate fluctuations, and the asset-liability adjustment is a currency that rearranges or converts these accounts to most likely to maintain their own value or even value added.
2, select favorable pricing currency, flexible use soft and coins. The size of foreign exchange risk is closely related to foreign currency currency. Different in the transaction payment, the foreign exchange risk is different. In foreign exchange revenue, the hard money collection should be struggled to pay with soft currency.
3, the monetary protection terms are entered into the contract. There are many kinds of monetary protection terms, and there is no fixed mode, but no matter what is used, as long as the contract is agreed, it can achieve the purpose of the value. The money preservation method mainly has gold value, hard currency protection, "a basket" currency protection, etc., most of the current contracts have adopted a hard monetary protection.
4, through the agreement, the risk is shared. The transaction can determine the base price and basic exchange rate of the product, determine the rate of exchange rate changes and the ratio of exchange rate changes in the exchange rate, and negotiate the price of the product as appropriate.
5, according to the actual situation, flexibly master the payment time. In the event of a rapid change in the international foreign exchange market, in advance or postponed, payment, payment, will have different benefits for economic subjects. Therefore, it should be good at grasp the timing, and the payment time is flexible according to the actual situation.
Using financial derivatives to avoid transaction risk
1, the application of financial derivative tool
(1) For forward foreign exchange transactions Reasonable application. The forward foreign exchange contract is usually irreparable, it is a tool for guaranteeing income and cash flow. The key to this risk avoidance is the expectation of future exchange rates. If the actual changes in exchange rate do not match the expected, it has lost its income. Thus, this hairy tool is often used in conservative management strategies.
(2) rational use of foreign exchange futures. The choice of foreign exchange futures trading also depends on exchange rate expectations and credit risk, but futures have a unique margin system, which is a leverage that benefits and losses, neither limiting risk and does not limit the benefits.
(3) rational use of foreign exchange option transactions. From the perspective of avoiding foreign exchange risk, foreign exchange options are extensions of foreign exchange forward contracts and foreign exchange futures. The difference is that it has the right to choose, option buyers can abandon the performance, which has changed with the market. Since banks take into account foreign exchange delivery usually in extremely unfavorable cases, the corresponding transaction costs will be improved, so when doing option transactions, the future uncertain time should be shortened to obtain a more favorable long-term exchange rate.
(4) Reasonable utilization of interchange transactions. In currency interchange transactions, the trader does not have to assume the risk of exchange rate fluctuations because the exchange rate is predetermined. The currency interchange exchange rate is agreed by the transaction, and the time limit of interchanged transactions is often longer, so it is more concise than futures, long-term contracts than futures when circumventing long-term foreign exchange risks. Interchange transactions are one of the most effective financial instruments that reduce long-term funding costs, prevent interest rates and exchange rate risks.
2, using derivative financial instruments should adhere to prudent principles. All kinds of risk avoidance measures have pros and cons, and the economic entity shall carefully select the risk of risk according to their business needs.
First, avoid foreign exchange transaction risks to pay corresponding management costs, so it is necessary to accurately account for accurate accounting, risk remuneration, risk loss.
Second, comprehensive consideration should be comprehensively considering, as far as possible to reduce or eliminate foreign exchange transaction risks by offset the exposure of monetary funds under different projects.
Finally, the method of preventing the risk of foreign exchange transactions is diverse, and the effect of achieving is different, and the economic entity should choose a reasonable hedging program according to its own situation.
management method
The management method of transaction risk can be divided into three categories:
Preventive measures
1 can be selected while signing the contract Preventive measures include choosing a contract currency, adding contract terms, adjusting prices or interest rates.
1) Select the contract currency. In economic transactions such as foreign trade and lending, what currency signing contract is selected as a currency or worth of currency, and is directly related to whether the transaction main body will undertake exchange rate risk. The following basic principles can be followed when choosing a contract currency: First, strive to use the national currency as a contract currency. Second, exports, lending capital outputs to use coins, that is, exchange rates in the foreign exchange market presents currencies in appreciation trends.
2) Place the currency protection terms in the contract. Money protection refers to a currency that chooses some kind of currency inconsistent with the contract currency, and transforms the contract amount with the selected currency to complete the contract currency according to the contract currency when the selected currency is used. At present, the currency preservation clauses used in countries are mainly "a basket" monetary protection terms, which is to choose a variety of currency to the contract currency, that is, when signing the contract, determine the exchange rate between the selected variety of currency and contract currency, And stipulate the weight of each selected currency, if the exchange rate changes, then according to the exchange rate fluctuation amplitude and the weight of each selected currency, according to the power of each selected currency, according to the time limit of the exchange rate and each selected currency.
3) Adjust the price or interest rate. In a transaction, both parties of the transaction are impossible to have a favorable contract currency. When one party has to accept the unfavorable currency as a contract currency, it can strive for appropriate adjustments to the price or interest rate in the negotiation: If you need to properly improve the export price of the cartin price, or the loan interest rate is paid by cartin currency; the import price of the coin pricing settlement is required, or the borrowing interest rate is paid by the coin value.
Financial market operation
After signing, foreign economic entities can use foreign exchange markets and monetary market to eliminate foreign exchange risks. Main methods, existing transactions, exchange transactions, futures trading, optional transactions, borrowings and investments, borrowings - in stock transactions - investment, foreign currency bill discount, interest rates and currency exchanges.
1) Exchange transaction. Here mainly refers to the use of immediate transactions in the foreign exchange market to balance foreign exchange sales on their daily foreign exchange.
2) Borrowing and investment. Refers to the purpose of eliminating foreign exchange risk by creating debts or creditors of the same currency, the same amount, the same period limit.
3) Foreign currency bill discount. This approach is beneficial to accelerating the fund turnover of the exporter, and can achieve the purpose of eliminating foreign exchange risks. Exporters provide the importer to provide funds, and the forward foreign exchange tickets can be used for future foreign exchange tickets to be discounted to banks, and they will be sold in advance, and they will sell them.
Other management methods
Except for the method of signing the contract, there are some ways, mainly: in advance or wrong, pair, insurance.
1) Pay foreign exchange in advance or wrong. It means that foreign economic entities are based on the trend of the pricing currency exchange rate, will pay the foreign exchange settlement day or clear day to advance or wrong to prevent foreign exchange risk or acquire exchange rate changes.
2) Pairing. It means that the foreign body is exactly the same as the transaction, and the transaction is exactly the same as the currency, the amount of money, but the fund flow is the opposite transaction, so that the two exchanges face exchange rates A approach to the impact of changes mutual offset.
3) Insurance. Refers to the foreign subject to insure exchange rate changes to the insurance company. Once the loss is lost due to changes in exchange rate, it shall be reasonably compensated by the insurance company. Exchange rate risk is generally borne by the state.