Brief Description
Risk decisions also referred to as "random decision". In this decision, there are a variety of decisions, and decision makers don't know which results will happen, but the probability of each result is known. A closer to actual situation is risk. The so-called risk. It means that those decision makers can estimate the probability of a result or program. The ability to estimate the probability of the result. It may come from personal experience or analysis of the second hand. In the case of risk, the manager has historical data guiding him to estimate the probability of different programs.
Condition
Risk Decision has the following five conditions:
(1) decision makers have a clear goal that is desirable (larger income is more Small);
(2) There are more than two action schemes for decision makers;
(3) There are two or more or more subjective will of decision makers For the natural state of the transfer;
(4) Different action programs can be calculated in different natural states;
(5) in several different natural states In the future, which natural state occurs in the future, policymakers cannot be sure, but the possibility of various natural states, decision makers can estimate or calculate.
Decision method
The following describes several decision-making methods for risk decisions.
1. Maximum Possible Method
The maximum possible method is based on maximum possible standards. We know that the greater the probability of an event, the greater the possibility of it. Based on this idea, the biggest possible criterion is to choose a probability of natural state in risk decision issues. Other natural states may be, at this time, risk decision issues can become deterministic decision-making issues, and according to determination decisions The model method of the problem is processed.
Generally, the case where the maximum possible method is: the probability that appears in a natural state is much larger than other natural states, and in the case of each natural state, the benefits value is not There is a huge disorder.
2. Expected Value method
The expected value method is based on the expectation value guidelines. The expectation value guidelines are to obtain the expectations of each action program, compare, select the optimal action scheme of the expected value. The expected value of each action scheme is
3. Decision tree method
The theoretical basis for decision trees is still expected, which represents different decision-making programs in different natural states, showing decisions. Decision tree method content image, clear thinking. Due to the decision-making process of the decision tree method, like a branch shape, the named name is called decision tree. Decision tree descriptions and analysis decisions are more flexible compared to decision tables.